Analysis of new legislative maps finds GOP likely stay in charge in 2020.

Analysis of new legislative maps finds GOP likely stay in charge in 2020.

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STATE CAPITAL WITH MORE. BILL: IF YOU LOOK AT THE MAPS,
IT IS HARD TO TELL WHAT CHANGES
WERE MADE BUT NOW WE HAVE THE
NUMBERS BEHIND THE CHANGES. CATAWBA COLLEGE POLITICAL
SCIENTIST MICHAEL SAYS BASED ON
THOSE NUMBERS, IF THE 2020
ELECTION IS LIKE THE 2016
ELECTION, REPUBLICANS WILL
REMAIN IN CHARGE OF THE LEGISLATURE. HE ADDS A MAJOR CAVEAT.>>IN A NORMAL POLITICAL
ENVIRONMENT, THESE ARE THE KINDS
OF NUMBERS I LOOK AT WHAT I
ALWAYS HAVE TO SAY, WE ARE NOT
IN NORMAL POLITICAL TIMES. BILL: HE CRUNCHED THE NUMBERS
AND FOUND SEVERAL LOCAL
LAWMAKERS COULD FACE MORE
COMPETITIVE RACES NEXT YEAR. HER EXAMPLE, A FORSYTH COUNTY
DEMOCRAT, EVELYN TERRY, HE
PREDICTS HER DISTRICT AS LIKELY
REPUBLICAN. AND MORE THAN 60% OF THE VOTERS
ARE REPUBLICAN VOTERS.>>THAT WILL POSE AN INTERESTING
CHALLENGE IF INCUMBENCY AND
VOTER LOYALTY WILL VOTE FOR THE
INCUMBENT. BILL: AND JOYCE LOST THE
REPUBLICAN VOTERS IN THE
REDISTRICTING PROCESS. HE CALLS THAT DISTRICT
COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN FAVORED.>>THIS KIND OF COMPETITIVE
REPUBLICAN LEANING DISTRICT IS
ONE THAT I AND OTHERS HERE IN
NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE WATCHING
IF THESE MAPS ARE APPROVED BY
THE COURT. BILL: HE FINDS A COUPLE OF OTHER
TRIAD LAWMAKERS AND MORE
COMPETITIVE DISTRICTS UNDER THE
NEW MAPS. JON HARDISTER AND STEVE ROSS ARE
NOW IN DISTRICTS WITH MORE
DEMOCRATS THAN BEFORE. HE RANKS DISTRICTS 59 AND 63 AS
COMPETITIVE LEANING REPUBLICAN. HE MAKES NO PREDICTIONS AS TO
WHETHER THE COURT WILL ACCEPT
THE NEW MAPS BUT SAYS THEY ARE
DIFFERENT.>>BUT THERE IS A LESSENING OF
THE PARTISAN ADVANTAGE BUT
STILL, JUST BASED ON WHERE
PEOPLE LIVE AND HOW THEY VOTE,
THERE IS STILL VERY MUCH A
REPUBLICAN ORIENTED MAJORITY IN THESE DISTRICTS. BILL: THE BIG UNKNOWN IS WHETHER
THE COURT WILL ACCEPT THE NEW
MAPS. THERE IS NO TIMETABLE ON A
DECISION BUT IT IS LIKELY SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

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